Saturday, September 3, 2011

Arvind Kejriwal will defeat P Chidambaram, Kiran Bedi will drounce Kapil SIbal

Dear News Editors:

Below are the highlights of the STAR News-Nielsen survey done after Anna Hazare called off his fast last week. The survey was done across 28 cities. Attached are the detailed survey findings.

Abhijit Das,
Senior Executive Editor.

STAR News-Nielsen survey: Congress in Free Fall as BJP gains most from Anna Campaign

New Delhi: Anna Hazare's campaign for Jan Lokpal Bill and his crusade against corruption has given the beleaguered Opposition, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a platform to contest the Lok Sabha polls.

A STAR News-Nielsen survey conducted across 28 cities with close to 9000 respondents after Anna ended his fast – has revealed that the BJP would garner 32 per cent of the votes across the country if elections were held tomorrow, while the Congress would manage only 20 per cent. In fact, the BJP has turned out to be the most favoured party across all regions – 40:27 in the north; 20:15 in the east, and 46:15 in the west – barring the south, where 20 per cent respondents still prefer the Congress, while 16 per cent prefer the BJP.

The numbers mentioned above is in stark contrast to the ones that came out in a similar survey conducted by STAR News-Nielsen in May 2011 – before the Anna movement gripped the country’s imagination. Barely four months ago, was the Congress leading the pack with 30 per cent of the vote share while BJP had only 23 per cent. Also, except the west, the Congress was leading in all zones.

In the current Lok Sabha, Congress has 207 seats and BJP has 115 seats.

Anna’s movement, and the way the UPA government handled the situation, seems to have swayed a number of people who voted for Congress during last General election – around 11 per cent of the respondents who voted for the Congress last time now intend to vote for the BJP, while only 5 per cent are switching away from the BJP.

Ministers, not Manmohan to be blamed:
A majority believe that the government misread the situation and bungled by arresting the Gandhian on the morning of August 16. Around 54 per cent of the respondents said that the situation was poorly handled by Congress. The respondents, however, absolved prime minister Manmohan Singh of the blame — 64 per cent said that his senior misters of the UPA regime were responsible for the poor handling of this situation. A majority – 54 per cent – also believe that even Sonia Gandhi wouldn't have been able to handle the situation better.

Not the right time for Rahul:
Even Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi seems to have hit the wrong note with the masses, with 54 per cent of the respondents saying that this is not the right time for Rahul Gandhi to take over as the Prime Minister of the country. If Anna Hazare and Rahul were to face-off in an election tomorrow, 78 per cent of the respondents would vote for the activist, while only 17 per cent would pick Rahul Gandhi over him. Surprisingly, even the youth respondents aged 18-25 prefer Anna over Rahul.

Team Anna in the Parliament!
Throughout Anna Hazare’s campaign, several UPA leaders, most vocally Kapil Sibal, had said that a few thousand people supporting Anna, do not represent a country of 1.2 billion. They even challenged his team members to prove its legitimacy in the elections. But if they were to contest elections against Team Anna members tomorrow, the politicians would be in for a surprise.

In a Kiran Bedi vs Kapil Sibal contest, 74 per cent of respondents in the STAR News-Nielsen survey would vote for the iconic former IPS officer, while Sibal would manage just 14 per cent. Similarly, a contest between Arvind Kejriwal and P Chidambaram would end up in a defeat for the home minister — 58 per cent of the respondents claim they will vote for the RTI activist while 24 per cent would choose Chidambaram.

Interestingly, the Anna campaign has given the country a brand new youth icon. Around 62 per cent of the respondents feel that Arvind Kejriwal, the most vocal member has as the new role model for young India. He has significantly higher approval ratings in north (75 per cent).

Annarchy or anarchy?
Anna’s methods for getting the Jan Lokpal Bill passed drew criticism from various quarters — some said it was against our Constitution, while others accused him of being extremely rigid with his demands. However, the respondents in the STAR News-Nielsen survey have shown an overwhelming support for Anna’s stand, with a staggering 82 per cent saying that the Gandhian’s way of protesting – fast until death if his demands are not accepted – was the right way to force the government. Only 12 per cent disagreed with Anna’s methods, saying that he was blackmailing the government.

Craft of graft
A majority of the people surveyed also believe that the passage Lokpal Bill would be a major milestone in India’s battle against graft. Around 56 per cent of the respondents believe that believe that the government must not dither and pass the Bill immediately and amendments required can be made through subsequent Bills. Also, 53 per cent of the respondents believe that a strong and potent Lokpal Bill would make India a corruption-free country in the next five years. Around 40 per cent said Lokpal wouldn’t do much to end graft.

Respondents however do not lay the blame for corruption on the doors of any particular political party — a third of respondents (75 per cent) believe that all parties are equally responsible for corruption. Another 49 per cent of the respondents believe that feels that giving or accepting bribe is in the fabric of the country and it cannot be stopped by people in India. A similar number — 46 per cent — believe that corruption can be stopped if people unite against it.

Main Points in Hindi –

सर्वे की सबसे बड़ी बात
अन्ना के आंदोलन से बीजेपी की कांग्रेस पर बढ़त

सर्वे की 10 बड़ी बातें
(1) अन्ना का आंदोलन जहां सबसे तेज़ था वहीं बीजेपी को सबसे ज्यादा फायदा
(2) 54% लोग मानते हैं कांग्रेस ने अन्ना के अनशन को ठीक से नही निपटा
(3) 64% लोग मानते हैं कि हालात से ठीक से न निपटने के लिए प्रधानमंत्री नही UPA सरकार के वरिष्ठ मंत्री जिम्मेदार
(4) 75लोगों का कहना है कि भ्रष्टाचार के लिए सभी राजनीतिक पार्टियां जिम्मेदार
(5) 54% लोग मानते हैं कि राहुल गांधी को इस वक्त प्रधानमंत्री पद से दूर रहना चाहिए
(6) 62लोगों का कहना है अरविंद केजरीवाल युवकों के नए नायक बन कर उभरे हैं
(7) अन्ना हजारेकिरन बेदी और अरविंद केजरीवाल  राहुल गांधीकपिल सिब्बल और पी चिदंबरम पर चुनावों में भारी पड़ सकते हैं
(8) 53लोग मानते हैं कि अगर मजबूत लोकपाल बिल पास हो तो 5 साल में देश से भ्रष्टाचार खत्म हो जाएगा
(9) 49लोगों का मानना है कि रिश्वत न लेने और न देने की शपथ खाने से ही भ्रष्टाचार नहीं मिटेगा
(10) 82लोगों का मानना है कि अपनी मांग मनवाने का अन्ना का तरीका सही था ब्लैकमेलिंग नहीं

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