Saturday, August 2, 2014




By R Rajagopalan

Monsoon session of Parliament has given a hint of future politics and challenges before the BJP Government.
It has sent out a clear signal that Southern regional parties will play a crucial role in conduct of Winter Session
and also future of sixteenth Lok Sabha

Clarity of the month long monsoon session if it is to be interpreted politically as viewed from Press Gallery of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha - a mega picture emerges. 

First and foremost is that BJP gravitating towards Southern regional parties like ADMK, TDP and also YSR Congress and Telangna Rashtraiya Samithi.TRS.  
Second BJP has very effectively neutralised the Congress which is yet to come out of its complete rout. Present strength of Congress with 44 if analysed 20 MPs come from Southern States.

Third interesting aspect is offer of Deputy Speaker of Lok Sabha to ADMK is significant from Tamil Nadu political alignments.

Fourth is ADMK silenced Congress benches in Monsoon session -thereby ADMK got branded as B team of BJP.

Beyond these Illustrations given above reader has to estimate the reach of BJP in southern states and how it galloped the space and voter share of Congress.  

To understand southern states politics-three issues are to be kept in mind. 

Congress Party in the last days of UPA Government was responsbile in bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh.  This discomforts and anger against Congress was taken advantage by BJP and TDP.  Similarly the Caste combination and their political positioning during Lok sabha polls - in Karnataka, Kerala Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Total elimination of Brahmins and upper castes in these four states  Reddy, Khamma, Kapus, Vogalikga and Lingayat,
Ezhavas, Nairs Thevar, Gownders are the dominat castes in Southern staes. in 2014 Lok Sabha polls all these communities had deserted Congress. that was beneficial to regional parties also in a way to BJP.

Very important is to analyse  the personality of Narendra Modi with Southern states - he was mainly responsible in wipring out of Congress in  Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Puduchery  - in 2014 Modi has gone much deeper in the hearts of voters in these states. Modi addressed 54 mega rallies in South India. 

With Amit Shah elevation as President of BJP- if he steps into these four states, which obviously is his strategy.
In 2016 three Tamil Nadu, Kerala are going to assembly polls. Amit Shah has plans to revitalise BJP in these states.
Modi and Amit Shah is a deadly combination-which is well understood by Congress and  DMK leaders
To strategise to ensure by 2016 as a prelude to 2019 Lok sabha - a complete "Congress mukt Dakshin Bharat"
There are 900 assembly constituencies in southern staes, and 130 Lok Sabha seats. A major chunk  
What Amit Shah conveyed to leaders of BJP from south is that he would focus atleast 50 Lok Sabha in 2019 and 100 Assembly seats. How would BJP achieve this? With Modi slogan, "Saab ki haath Saab ki vikas"

Atal Bihari Vajpayee style of intrusions in South states was a model for Modi.  But for Vajpayee compelling BJP in Madhya Pradesh to accommodate O Rajagopal of Kerala and later Thirunavukarasar of Tamil Nadu to be elected to Rajya Sabha.  Atalji insisted one MP should be from Madhya Pradesh. He was keen to expand it to other states
like Rajasthan and Maharasthra.  That is why R Ramakrishna is now Rajya sabha MP from Rajasthan.

BJP is concentrating in Karnataka for 2018 Assmbly polls.  It will capture. Similarly there is another state where BJP is certain to rule is Telangana.  Reason, in NDA regime in 2002  when smaller states are created, since then
BJP is in power in Chhatisgarh, also  held on to Uttrakhand, Jharkhand. In all probablity, BJP may capture
Telangana. and also Andhra Pradesh with alliance of TDP.  Similarly in Tamil Nadu voters are dejected with the
alternate Governments of Jayalalitha and Karnunanidhi. Which Modi effectively stated in poll speeches. 
In 2016 assembly election in Tamil Nadu, BJP and ADMK is bound to get closer. Compulsions are not only
Hindutva style of Jayalalitha, but the chemistry between Modi and Jayallaitha are working well.

Narendra Modi mindset is clear-from his poll speeches. That BJP will make in roads in Southern States.


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